Retirement Monte Carlo Simulation: Probability of Success
Stop relying on a single average return. Simulate thousands of market futures to see how often your plan survives — including sequence-of-returns risk.
Want to know what the market says about individual stocks?
FixYourFI calculates your required allocation. Tickerio provides institutional-grade AI screening, GEMS scores, and fundamental analysis.
Why a Single Return Number Lies to You
A flat "assume 7% per year" projection implies a known future. Real markets are a sequence of shocks, and the order of those shocks matters enormously — a crash in your first retirement years is far more damaging than the same crash later. Monte Carlo replaces one line with a distribution of thousands of plausible futures.
How to read the success rate
- 85–100% — robust plan; you may even be over-saving.
- 70–85% — reasonable; add a cash buffer or flexibility to withdraw less in bad years.
- <70% — tighten spending, extend contributions, or lower your withdrawal rate.
Execution after the simulation
Once your plan survives the simulation, the remaining question is what to hold. Build the core with broad index funds, then research individual holdings and expected returns with Tickerio — the execution arm that screens stocks and tracks valuation.
- Monte Carlo methods in financial planning
- Bengen (1994) 4% rule
- Kitces sequence-of-returns research
- Historical S&P 500 volatility (~15-18%)
Research stocks & valuations with Tickerio AI →
FixYourFI builds the architecture — Tickerio executes: AI screening, GEMS scores, and fundamental analysis for picking individual securities.